Let’s assume for the sake of argument that the Democrats gain a majority in the House and maybe even the Senate, does this indicate some major repudiation of President Bush and the Republicans?
Friday we looked at presidential elections, popular vote, and perceptions of mandates. Bill Clinton gets 50.0% of the vote when he is re-elected and it’s a mandate. George Bush gets 50.7% and it’s a squeaker… how is that possible? It’s easy when the media outlets are essentially in the Democrat camp, if not their hip pocket.
If the Democrats gain control of the House on Tuesday (which will happen if they gain only 15 seats), expect to hear about how the people have risen up to send George Bush and the Republicans a message. But is that an accurate assessment of what’s going on here? Two charts for your consideration:
- The first chart shows House control from 1965 to the present.
- The second shows seats lost or gained for the Party in Power in the Whitehouse during non-presidential election years.
The average off-cycle election resulted in the Party that held the Whitehouse losing 20 seats in the House. The largest loss was 1995 when the Republicans gained 54 seats in the House during the 2nd half of President Clinton’s 1st term. The smallest “loss” was actually a gain, when the Republicans gained 8 additional seats in 2003.
So, if the average is a 20 seat loss, how is anything less than 20 seats a mandate? In fact, how is anything less than 30 seats any kind of mandate?
Looking at the first chart, I saw something I essentially knew, but seeing it charted made it jump off the page… although the Republicans have “controlled” the House since 1995, they never held a majority as big as the democrats had from 1965-1995… not even once. Their biggest majority is in the current House, 232-202. The smallest majority the Democrats had in all those years was 242-192. Why does that matter? Because the smaller the majority, the tougher it is to push through an agenda.
So… if the Democrats do gain a small majority, not only would it be difficult to show how that is some sort of mandate, it may be virtually impossible for the Democrats to push their agenda. Oh sure, they can let tax cuts expire (but most will be around for awhile and hopefully a Democrat House won’t be), but for the most part, their power will be limited to pushing more and more negative stuff down our throats (congressional hearings, blocking of bills, subpoenas).
The Democrats will not be able to come even close to overriding a veto and will move swiftly towards their comfort zone: attacks on the President, attacks on Conservatives, attacks on anything to ensure, with the help of a willing press, that the perception will be that of an uncompromising President blocking progress.
It never ceases to amaze me (although it shouldn’t by now) that the Democrats and the press are so adept at fooling the American public into believing that, if the Republicans don’t agree with the Democrat agenda, somehow they are being uncompromising; while if the Democrats don’t agree with the Republican agenda, they are merely standing up for the rights of the minority position.
If the Democrats take control of the House, and it is not a foregone conclusion just yet, it should be an interesting two years. But if they take less than the average of 20 seats form the Republicans… looks like a major victory for the Republicans. 
Some additional reading you may find interesting:
- Historical Unemployment Rates shows how today’s rate compares to historical rates
- Waterboarding: Torture or Coercion touches upon a very controversial subject, provides an actual video of a waterboarding found on YouTube that you can watch if you like (it does not play automatically in case you would prefer to not see it), and gives you the opportunity to decide for yourself if this is an acceptable form of interrogation
- Movie Night is something I plan to continue based upon positive feedback I’ve received
- Some historical comparisons to Tokyo Rose and propagandists today
- And most importantly, Support Our Troops provides an opportunity for you to help some of our service men and women returning from The Front on the War on Terrorism
Thanks for visiting… and keep on thinkin’ ’bout stuff
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