Ever worked with anyone who had a talent for creating a crises and then getting all the credit for saving the day?
Just thinking…
Let’s assume for the moment that much of the problems we face are being magnified by a steady drum beat of doom and gloom during a protracted presidential campaign. We have been told over and over that our lives are terrible, that we need change, that this is the worst economy since the Great Depression… so much so that, with the cooperation of a liberal press, the Democrats have driven our country to the brink of economic suicide.
Think about it… you are told the economy is in the toilet, so you become nervous, then worried, then down-right scared and you stop spending. Enough folks follow suite and no product is moving. No product moves, and workers are not needed. Folks lose their jobs, tighten their belts, and less product is moving… and the downward spiral accelerates.
Add to that the apparent ignorance of much of the US population when it comes to how government works, and the Republicans are tossed out even though the Democrats control the House and Senate.
Enter the savior.
Don’t get me wrong, I hope Obama, whether through actual actions or simply because folks will feel that it is safe to spend again, turns this economy around and gets us into an upward spiral. But don’t kid yourself, he and those who pushed his message of despair are largely to blame for the current situation.
Obama has made some good moves in his early selections for his cabinet, and some not so good moves. But the best move he can make, and I would expect him to wait until he takes office so he can be certain to get all of the credit for the recovery, would be to promise to not raise capital gains taxes for at least two years. This will bring investors home and turn the stock markets around. Combine that with lower fuel prices, which leads to lower prices for just about everything else, and spending will pick up, which will drive demand, which will drive production, which will drive job creation, which will drive spending, etc.
Even if he doesn’t, just the fact that he will be talking about how much better things are going to be now will create an environment where things will get better… it’s all about perception.
By the way, i wonder if gas prices finally hit the tipping point earlier this year. Did they go high enough that we actually will see a long-term change in consumption habits? If so, the oil guys shot themselves in the foot because it will take a dramatic drop in prices ($1.25/gal maybe?) to reverse that trend. Like I said, just wondering…
Oh.. and you gotta love how team Obama is redefining his message of change. Now change means anything different than the Bush administration as opposed to a change politics as usual in Washington. If that was the case, then Hillary Clinton would have been a more qualified choice for the Dems. You know what, I think even Obama agrees… how else can you explain that he is essentially building his cabinet from drift wood gathered from the Clinton years.