Was visiting RealClearPolitics today, checking out the latest polls, and wondering why the new CBS News/NY Times poll results are so far off all the other polls in the same timeframe:
Poll End Date Sample Apprv Disapprv Spread RCP Average 9/23 – 52.5 40.7 +11.8 CBS/Times 9/23 1042 A 56 33 +23 Gallup 9/23 1547 A 51 42 +9 Rasmussen 9/23 1500 LV 51 48 +3
So, took a peek at the distribution of the CBS News/NY Times poll compared to the Rasmussen reports poll and the data was pretty much what you would expect to see (could not find similar breakout on the Gallup site):
Poll Dems Reps Inds CBS News/NY Times 37% 22% 41% Rasmussen Reports 37.7% 32.7% 29.6%
A significant slant in the poll in favor of Democrats.
CBS News/NY Times is only including 22% Republicans in their sample!
Who is closer to right? Rasmussen at 32.7% or CBS News/NY Times at 22%? I don’t have any definitive data to say who is right here, but 22% sure seems low. Sure as heck explains why Obama’s approval ratings look so much better when viewed through the eyes of the folks conducting the CBS News/NY Times poll.
If nothing else, this should be a reminder to not just take polls at face value. What does the sample look like? How were the questions phrased? And perhaps most importantly…. does the sponsor of the poll have an agenda?
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